Tendências de Negócios e Tecnologia para 2021

Consumers compelled toward escapism CX leaders renovate not just decorate CIOs lead the bold disruptors Workplace automation and AI are here to stay COVID19 changes leadership and hiring practices forever CMOs reinvent themselves and their teams With more employee data comes opportunity but also legal risk Remote work drives uptick in insider threats Digital pathways bring B2B marketers closer to buyers B2B sellers deepen buyer relationships with help from AI Cloud takes center stage in pandemic recovery Edge is the new cloud Accelerating out of the crisis Faced with the pandemic firms did things that once seemed impossible sometimes overnight Under the relentless pressure of new customer realities the future came into focus The value of your company depends on how customerobsessed resilient creative and adaptive you are in jumping to the next growth curve in your industry Much of your success will depend on how quickly and how well you harness technology to both enable your workforce in the new normal and build platforms that differentiate your firm Indeed technology acceleration is the common thread in our predictions for the coming year Yes that means investing in new technology But with the pandemic still a reality and budgets rightfully under scrutiny for 2021 it also means taking advantage of and realizing the value of the technology that you already have and finally retiring the technical debt holding you back 2021 will be the year that every company not just the 15 of firms that were already digitally savvy doubles down on technologyfueled experiences operations products and ecosystems Read on to see what exactly 2021 has in store for business and technology leaders 2020 Forrester Research Inc 2 Social distancing tempts another 10 to 12 of US consumers to try extended reality Consumers compelled toward escapism 2 020 erupted into chaos and plunged consumers and businesses into crisis mode in 2021 we will begin to see contours of the new economic social and cultural orders forged in the crucible of the COVID19 pandemic The strain of fluctuating between fear and want fulfilling domestic and professional obligations simultaneously contending with feelings of isolation and navigating political and social unrest will compel consumers toward escapism Consumers will become more willing to try out new forms of consumption that promise a rush of comfort control and happiness even if the experiences are entirely simulated Extended reality which includes augmented mixed and virtual reality technologies will enable this trend As of Q4 2019 36 of US consumers had trialed augmented or virtual reality In 2021 we predict that another 10 to 12 of US consumers will experiment with the technology expanding overall exposure to just short of half the US online adult population Consumers will give brands permission to become more creative entertaining and immersive than theyve ever found palatable before CMOs will need to create consciously and sincerely if manipulative tactics destroy trust among this emotionally vulnerable population consumers wont give your brand a second chance 2020 Forrester Research Inc 3 T he circumstances of 2020 brought to a head the quagmire that has been brewing for marketing leaders over the last five years Chief marketing officers need to drive customer obsession at their firms rather than just guiding ad buying and promotions That means putting the customer at the center of everything you do leadership strategy and operations Reinvention of themselves their teams and the marketing function will be the theme for successful CMOs in 2021 We expect these CMOs to create new commercial and delivery models in order to keep their companies solvent They will suit up with their teams to do the hard work not just overseeing it from a distance If they havent already leading CMOs will integrate marketing and customer experience in the coming months Segregating acquisition from everything that happens after a prospect completes a purchase product utilization customer service retention advocacy was always a bad idea Now pandemic conditions make this disconnect perilous Disjointed experiences cost millions and lose customers they are the antithesis of customer obsession Growth comes from continued use of a companys offering so its imperative to focus on acquiring customers who will stick around for the long haul Marketers will reemphasize the value of their loyalty programs and will mature from frequencybased rewards programs to fullfledged loyalty programs Already media money is shifting into retention methods such as email customer service and the creation of products that drive growth We predict that spend on loyalty and retention marketing will increase by 30 in 2021 CMOs reinvent themselves and their teams Spend on loyalty and retention marketing will increase by 30 as CMOs assert control over the full customer lifecycle 2020 Forrester Research Inc 4 I n years past we saw the most improved companies in Forresters Customer Experience Index CX Index advance by playing a game of whackamole as they found and fixed fundamental problems often in their backend systems and processes In 2020 we saw many more companies advance and improve by playing a very different game one thats just starting to bear fruit after years of improving core CX competencies especially research prioritization and enablement Forrester is seeing increasingly widespread adoption of CX competencies which we predict will enable 25 of brands to achieve statistically significant advances in CX quality in 2021 This years advancers did the work to determine what really matters to their customers identified projects to improve important experiences prioritized the efforts with the biggest potential upside for customers and the business and then trained their employees and gave them new tools so that they could deliver the right experiences consistently These are the kind of strategic efforts that will build on themselves and begin to change the landscape for CX within industries Theyre strategic and selfreinforcing because they produce business results One surprising outcome of this work is that firms will cut CX technology spend in 2021 but will actually improve CX As organizations evaluate tech spend what Forrester suggested about having one voiceofthecustomer program and not many aiming for fewer cooks in the kitchen will come to fruition leading to consolidation of CX tools and technologies This move will save organizations hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars but it will also help them realize the value of the technologies that remain In 2021 well see more of these strategic efforts especially because they will enable companies particularly those that take a holistic systematic approach to better deal with the forced evolution of CX caused by the pandemic CX leaders renovate not just decorate 25 of brands will achieve statistically significant advances in CX quality in 2021 2020 Forrester Research Inc 5 I n 2021 30 of firms will continue to accelerate their spend on cloud security and risk networks and mobility including struggling firms looking to leapfrog less wily competitors and gain advantage coming out of the pandemic Leading CIOs will embrace cloudfirst and platform strategies for speed and adaptiveness eschewing stovepipes for endtoend solutions Interviews with leading CIOs found that they are collaborating more across organizations objectives and budgets extending ITbusiness partnerships into enterprise level shared accountability They will also invest aggressively in employees breaking down old ideals and resolving resistance within the organization In fact CIOs focused on employee experience EX will help their firms attract develop and retain talent that can provide competitive advantage in a critical year They will make the needed investments to foster social collaboration make information easier to find and use and provide security thats less distracting Organizations with CIOs who are slow or unable to adapt will have at least two problems on their hands 1 massive attrition and 2 getting mired in shortterm fixes like tech modernization simplification and consolidation that achieve only digital sameness through peercomparison strategies by the end of 2021 30 of firms will increase spend on cloud security and risk networks and mobility CIOs lead the bold disruptors 2020 Forrester Research Inc 6 I n 2021 at least 21 of US information workers will work primarily from home compared with 7 in 2019 Some 47 of North American managers surveyed during the pandemic anticipate a permanently higher rate of fulltime remote employees and 53 of employees say they want to work from home more often even after the pandemic Most companies will employ a hybrid work model with fewer people in the office and more fulltime remote employees As a major portion of the workforce develops the skills and preference for effective remote work they will come to expect a workfrom anywhere strategy from their company rather than an exceptiondriven remotework policy Expect this to reshape talent acquisition moving right into talent poaching as the most desirable workers seek location agnostic work opportunities Expectations have been reset for HR leaders just like they have for employees The pandemic thrust HR into the middle of transformations that required coordinating remotework tech with IT rejiggering budgets midyear with the CFO and completely altering talent acquisition and training models Newly emboldened the best will use their improved connection to IT to ask for better tools for analyzing and acting on workforce data the best of the best will seek out AIenriched tools that will inform workforce policy and guide specific employees to better outcomes This means more budget and more potential conflict among senior leaders But HR will have a compelling argument Chief among their new interests will be using these tools to boost employee wellness This will help manage the new compliance issues associated with working remotely just wait until the occupational health and safety claims for injuries that occur while working from home pile up and build the EX environment companies need as a bridge to postpandemic work life COVID19 changes leadership and hiring practices forever Remote work will rise to 300 of preCOVID levels 2020 Forrester Research Inc 7 C onsumer demand innovation and the pandemic are changing the way we work and igniting employers desire to collect analyze and share employee personal data In fact workforce analytics is one of the fastest growing segments of the human capital management market CAGR estimates of nearly 16 mean it will approach nearly 1 billion by 2023 With data comes opportunity but without the right safeguards it becomes a trap We predict that in 2021 regulatory and legal activity regarding employee privacy will double While European regulators are already enforcing privacy rules to protect employees personal data countries such as Brazil India and Thailand will soon do the same And in the US given the corporate practices and policies that often limit or deny employees a right to privacy the battle to determine what is a reasonable expectation of workplace privacy will be fought in the courts Expect employee privacy lawsuits to multiply in the next 12 months Companies must take a privacy by design approach when handling employee personal data Doing this entails identifying and following all relevant requirements including and beyond privacy assessing specific privacy and ethical risks and communicating transparently with employees With more employee data comes opportunity but also legal risk Regulatory and legal activity related to employee privacy infringements will double 2020 Forrester Research Inc 8 2020 was not the year security and risk leaders wanted or expected 2021 will not see things return to normal yet This will simultaneously require chief information security officers CISOs and security and risk leaders to adapt while remaining resilient In 2021 CISOs will want to monitor three major factors that will produce an uptick in insider threats 1 the rapid push of users including some outside of companies typical security controls to remote work as a result of the COVID19 pandemic 2 employees job insecurity and 3 the increased ease of moving stolen company data Combined these will produce an increase of 8 percentage points in insider incidents from 25 today to 33 in 2021 The overall number of insider threats will also be pushed higher as firms get better at identifying and attributing incidents to insider activity Leading CISOs will put a greater focus on insider threat defense while emphasizing improved employee experience not treating users like machines to avoid turning employees into malicious insiders Considerations for employees privacy company culture and local standards for lawful fair and acceptable labor practices are key to the success of your insider threat program Remote work drives uptick in insider threats 33 of data breaches will be caused by insider incidents up from 25 today 2020 Forrester Research Inc 9 U nsurprisingly 2021 will see a changed workplace and new technology will be needed to support it Eighteen million US workers will work from home in the wake of the pandemic from knowledge workers to cubicle workers Many firms will invest in conversational artificial intelligence machine learning and hardware advances to help smooth some of these workplace changes Workfromhome staff will see EX automation perform tasks that were previously done in the office or that held higher labor costs such as employee selfservice customer service support and document extraction We forecast that by the end of 2021 one out of every four remote workers will be supported by new forms of automation either directly or indirectly Direct support will be the rarer form giving a bot to individual workers to support their daily journey But indirect support will blossom as robotic process automation RPA bots combined with conversational intelligence and other intelligent automation will handle business tasks often invisible to the home worker To best integrate automation and AI with a diverse wide and anxious workforce enterprises should create EX working groups and embrace human in the loop design methods Workplace automation and AI are here to stay 35 of companies will double down on workplace AI 2020 Forrester Research Inc 10 T he coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the digital destinies of B2B buyers and marketers B2B marketers with a keen eye on customer satisfaction and revenue acceleration must quickly adopt new technologies as buyer engagement preferences shift toward digital channels Today more than onethird of B2B technology buyers say digital engagement channels such as vendor websites have become more important in their buying journeys while around four in 10 indicate that humananalog engagement with sellers has become less important As B2B marketers look to adopt and optimize new tactics AIpowered martech tops the list This technology has proven effective at the early and late stages of the buying cycle for example in optimizing programmatic advertising bids or recommending next best content in a sales enablement solution However fewer than 20 of B2B companies are using AI to create conversational experiences or to optimize personalized engagement at scale As buyers gravitate toward digital channels B2B marketers having widely adopted the use of chatbot and virtual assistant technologies are ready to scale more automated conversations with these buyers Yet many of todays implementations are hamhanded yielding nothing more than a click pathway to a human seller With practice and as the technologies mature chatbots and virtual assistants will leverage first and thirdparty data along with AI and machine learning to offer more personalized guided experiences Given these improvements we predict more than a third of B2B technology buyers will rate chatbots as a top10 engagement channel in their buying journeys Digital pathways bring B2B marketers closer to buyers More than a third of B2B technology buyers will rate chatbots as a top10 engagement channel 2020 Forrester Research Inc 11 A s companies extend their work fromhome policies airlines reduce routes and health concerns prevail expect B2B sellers to continue adapting their methods and building new competencies to succeed in a largely remote and digital environment To thrive in 2021 and beyond B2B sellers will need the right enablement tools to enhance their productivity and engage with prospects and customers in more meaningful ways Fiftyseven percent of B2B sales leaders told us they plan to make deeper investments in tools with AI and automation in the upcoming fiscal year Sales tools that capture and automatically upload buyer and seller activity data to CRM systems will finally take sellers out of the data entry game Relieved from endless administrivia sellers will have the time and space to conduct deeper customer research cull insights from data and orchestrate more meaningful interactions with buyers As the amount of buyer engagement data increases AI can surface patterns guide the seller to the next best action and identify the buyers preferred channel In 2021 we predict that more than 60 of B2B sellers will be enabled by AI and automation To uplevel sellers and improve sales arm your team with sales tools that have embedded AI and automation functionality B2B sellers deepen buyer relationships with help from AI More than 60 of B2B sellers will be enabled by AI and automation 2020 Forrester Research Inc 12 T he workplace impact of the global pandemic reinforced the tremendous value and necessity of cloud computing to the worlds economy and workforce Without cloud apps tools and services businesses could not have sent millions of workers home maintained global supply chains or shifted entire industry business models in a matter of weeks The rush to cloud during the pandemic also exposed stark contrasts between companies that embrace cloud technologies and those that have resisted or underfunded them The aggressive move to cloud already proceeding at a healthy clip before the pandemic will spike in 2021 yielding even greater enterprise adoption cloud provider revenue and business value in 2021 The changes brought about by COVID19 forced companies to prioritize speed and customer experience over cost savings and efficiency and they flocked to public cloud services faster than ever Etsy spun up new Google Cloud infrastructure to meet a spike in ecommerce Lowes got a curbside pickup app running in three days and Moderna is using AWS to accelerate COVID19 vaccine research We previously predicted that the public cloud infrastructure market would grow 28 to reach 1131 billion in 2021 Midpandemic the four largest public clouds maintained very strong revenue growth AWS 29 Microsoft Azure 47 Google Cloud 43 and Alibaba 59 as companies accelerated cloud migrations and rushed out new apps to meet fastchanging consumer demands We now predict that the global public cloud infrastructure market will grow 35 to 120 billion in 2021 and that Alibaba Cloud will take the number three revenue spot globally after AWS and Azure Cloud takes center stage in pandemic recovery The global public cloud infrastructure market will grow 35 to 120 billion in 2021 2020 Forrester Research Inc 13 E dge computing is essentially bringing computing closer to where data is generated and where action on the data can be taken In 2020 mobility decisionmakers whose firms have implemented edge computing told Forrester that collecting input from mobile and other devices was the biggest benefit to their organizations using edge computing In 2021 we will see new business models emerge that facilitate the deployment of edge efforts by cloud platforms to compete and AI and 5G facilitating the expansion of edge use cases All of this new business and investment will see edge eat into public cloud growth Hyperscale public cloud vendors have been on a growth binge for a decade but that growth will naturally decline from a whopping 42 in 2018 to a projected 24 by 2022 as the market matures Hidden in this natural motion is another force edge vendors capturing more cloud business Whats driving this trend First consider that large vendors such as Dell HPE IBM and Intel are doubling down on the edge with cloudlike solutions deployable to anywhere Second content delivery networks and data center colocation vendors are offering edge compute services across hundreds or thousands of local points of presence which helps business systems that are more responsive and contextual Finally edge innovation marketing is heating up there was more venture investment in Q1 of 2020 than all of 2019 Over the next three years buyers will shift their cloud strategies toward the edge to capture all this innovation and become more connected While public clouds will play a part we do not think they will dominate as their culture is based on massive data centers and tight control of the architecture the exact opposite of what firms need to serve customers locally Vendors with a winning edge strategy will do better Edge is the new cloud New edge vendors will shave 5 points off of public cloud growth 2020 Forrester Research Inc 14 FOLLOW FORRESTER Americas 1 6153953401 EMEA 44 0 2073 237741 Asia Pacific 65 6426 7006 Explore more Predictions content Become a client Following sudden and profound disruption in 2020 a new landscape is emerging Hardwon lessons in adaptability creativity and resilience will continue to serve companies as they navigate ongoing change No industry or firm will be untouched as ways of working leading and serving customers are transformed Explore these dynamics further with Forrester thought leaders in our Predictions 2021 webinar At Forrester we are on your side to help you anticipate change and understand what it means for your firm and to guide you on how best to move forward Let us know how we can help Forrester clients can access the data and research that underpin these predictions at forrcom2021predictions or email us at forresterinfo forrestercom VISIT PREDICTIONS HUB CONTACT US Out Of The Crisis A New Order Takes Hold